The UK Government is forecast to miss its recently revised clean power targets for offshore wind, onshore wind, and solar PV by a combined 32 GW, according to new figures from Cornwall Insight.
According to Cornwall Insight’s GB Benchmark Power Curve, it’s expected that there will be a shortfall in capacity from all three of the aforementioned renewable sources of electricity, with the worst hit set to be solar.
It’s currently expected that there will be 16 GW of underperformance for solar, which is expected to reach 29 GW instead of the 45-47 GW target that the UK Government had outlined. Meanwhile, onshore wind is projected to fall 10 GW short of its 27-29 GW goal, with planning issues continuing to bog down projects.
Unsurprisingly, offshore wind came closest to expectations, with it now set to be just 6 GW under the 43-50 GW target outlined by the UK Government in its ‘Clean Power 2030 Action Plan’.
Could this just be a short delay in achieving a clean power system?
While it may be disappointing for many who were hoping for a quick transition to a clean energy system, there are still some bright spots for the industry. After all, solar is still expected to grow its capacity by 70% on the current 17 GW that is currently installed, which should still be applauded.
Arguably, the most disappointed will be the UK Government, who updated their capacity goals as recently as December. That plan included detail on infrastructure and grid connections, alongside investment in flexible generation and storage. It also highlighted ways in which the industry could be reformed to get new generation capacity online quicker.
However, Cornwall Insight’s analysis indicates that, with 2030 just five years away, many of these reforms may not take effect quickly enough to significantly boost capacity. That’s a sentiment shared across the industry, with Andy Willis, CEO of Kona Energy previously calling for the UK Government to ‘be more realistic’ with its clean power goal.
That doesn’t mean we should just give up, however. We always knew that it would be a herculean task to clean up our power system, and we’ve made great progress so far. Plus, increasing energy demand from data centres, spurred by efforts to expand AI capabilities, intensifies the need for renewable investments.
Although forecasts suggest the 2030 targets may not be met, Cornwall Insight’s projections still anticipate considerable progress from current operational capacity levels. This is expected to keep the electricity sector broadly on track for net zero emissions within the next decade, ahead of the 2050 economy-wide target.
Tom Musker, Modelling Manager at Cornwall Insight, noted, “Renewables are set for substantial growth over the next five years, as the country strives to meet its clean power ambitions. However, despite promising progress, the gap between this growth and government targets underscores the urgent need to address both the operational and investment barriers slowing renewables growth. Grid connection delays, supply chain constraints, and uncertainty surrounding electricity market reforms are all creating a challenging environment for developers. Without swift and decisive action to resolve these issues, the UK risks falling significantly behind its clean power ambitions.
“The government’s push towards a fully decarbonised grid represents an opportunity to cement the UK’s position as a global leader in renewable energy. However, while setting ambitious goals for renewables is crucial, some argue that pushing too quickly could have unintended consequences, diverting resources to short-term solutions at the expense of longer-term energy security and sustainability.
“Timely investment in infrastructure, clarity on market reforms, and support for innovative project delivery are vital to unlocking the UK’s clean energy potential. Ensuring we not only meet immediate clean power goals but also stay on track for our broader net zero commitments.”