Solar PV prices are expected to come under upward pressure from April, with businesses in the UK being warned that delaying projects could leave them facing higher panel costs and longer lead times.
At the heart of the change is a policy shift in China, which dominates global solar manufacturing. Beijing has confirmed that the 9% VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products will be removed from April 1, 2026, while export rebates for battery products will be cut from 9% to 6% before being withdrawn altogether from January 1, 2027. The move follows an earlier reduction from 13% to 9% in late 2024, and is widely seen as an attempt to curb aggressive price competition and stabilise export pricing.
It’s suggested that the policy change has already triggered a rush from overseas customers trying to secure supply before the April deadline, creating tighter near-term availability and pushing module prices upwards. In fact, in the first half of 2026, it’s expected that the cost of manufacturing Chinese panels will increase – although that is thought to only be in the short-term, with prices expected to come back down later this year.
While manufacturing costs are expected to level out, don’t expect them to hit rock bottom prices. That’s because manufacturers are still having to contend with sharply higher prices on some key components – especially silver. This time last year, silver was trading at around £25 per ounce. That price now stands at £64 per ounce, with prices continuing to fluctuate due to huge demand – with silver used in everything from EVs to nuclear control rods and even the GPUs used in data centres.
Previously polysilicon was the single largest cost component in solar modules, but that’s no longer the case. In fact, polysilicon prices have been on a downward trend recently, with reports suggesting steep declines in recent months. That has led to silver accounting for a larger share of the cost of solar PV panels, with it said to now sit at around 16-17% of the total cost of manufacturing a panel.
For businesses weighing up an installation, that creates a complicated picture. Solar may still make financial sense over the long term, particularly for firms looking to reduce exposure to volatile electricity prices, but procurement timing is suddenly becoming much more important. A project that looked comfortably within budget at the start of the year could now face revised hardware costs if orders slip beyond March.
Joanne Skinner, Commercial Director of Fusion 360, commented, “Commercial, industrial, housing and public sectors looking to invest in solar energy are best to act now. Delaying projects could mean paying more for panels, incurring longer lead times and potentially disrupting any sustainability targets for your business”.
Fusion 360 said it has been working with its customers to secure hardware ahead of the anticipated increase, reflecting a wider market effort to bring orders forward before the rebate changes take effect.
“These price rises have been anticipated for some time, so we’ve been proactively working with businesses to help them secure the hardware required for their solar energy systems. Until April, we’re able to offer the opportunity to lock in better pricing, guarantee availability and ensure their solar panels are delivered and installed on time,” Skinner added.
The battery side of the market may also become more relevant in the months ahead. While the immediate focus is on PV modules, the reduction and eventual removal of Chinese battery export rebates could also affect the economics of solar-plus-storage projects, particularly as more businesses look beyond generation and towards resilience, self-consumption and flexibility.
