Low-voltage electricity networks will need far better visibility and planning if they are to cope with the next phase of electrification, according to a new report from VisNet.
The report warns that average household load in the UK is set to rise by 40% by 2030, while evening peak usage is expected to jump by 60% in homes with electric vehicles and heat pumps. Based on research covering 8,002 consumers across the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, the report argues that the real pressure point is now the grid itself – particularly the local networks expected to absorb new demand and new generation at the same time.
That matters because the strain is no longer just about how much electricity households use, but when they use it, where they use it, and whether they are also exporting power back into the system. The report says 73% of rooftop solar owners use energy from their systems daily, creating more persistent reverse flows on low-voltage networks, while more than 60% of households already own at least one appliance considered high-intensity in energy usage. It also points to further demand growth ahead, with 45% of respondents saying they plan to buy an EV or electric bike within the next five years, and a quarter saying they are likely to adopt solar panels in the same period.
One of the more interesting findings is the gap between perceived and actual network stress. While 47% of respondents said they use electricity most heavily between 5.01pm and 8pm, and UK consumers believed their highest usage point was around 4.31pm, VisNet’s own low-voltage data from Cheshire’s Energy Innovation District found the most common time of peak loading was actually between 6pm and 6.30pm.
For operators, that difference matters. If the network is planned around assumptions rather than feeder-level visibility, the risk is either unnecessary reinforcement or not moving fast enough where local constraints are emerging.
From reactive to proactive
The report lands as DNOs prepare for Ofgem’s RIIO-ED3 price control period, which starts in April 2028 and places greater emphasis on efficient network operation, decarbonisation, and consumer benefit.
VisNet’s central argument is that network owners and operators will need to move away from reactive planning and towards proactive investment, using real-time low-voltage monitoring, behavioural forecasting, and scenario modelling to decide where flexibility can help and where reinforcement is genuinely needed.
Its six recommendations include modernising monitoring capabilities, embedding behavioural forecasting into network planning, incentivising smarter consumption, and aligning network development more closely with net zero goals.
“Electricity distribution has now expanded beyond cables and substations,” said Mark Sprawson, Chief Commercial Officer at EA Technology.
“It is about intelligence, adaptability, and responsiveness. Owners and operators of electricity networks need actionable intelligence in real time.”
Sprawson continued, “Grid-edge intelligence helps bridge perception and reality, whilst grid access technologies support faster and more accurate network planning. DNOs are harnessing grid-edge intelligence to make net zero goals a reality.”
While the report is written from the perspective of a company that supplies monitoring and modelling technology, it’s not like the warning isn’t on the radar of many network operators. Electrification is arriving unevenly, with local networks having to deal not only with higher loads from EVs, heat pumps, air conditioning and batteries, but also with more distributed generation and a growing need to connect new customers quickly and efficiently. The old model of one-way power flows and broad-brush infrastructure upgrades is looking increasingly dated.
Ana Duran, Product Manager, VisNet, added her thoughts, “Managing peak loads intelligently, without overinvesting in infrastructure, is the key challenge ahead for electricity operators. Predictive analytics and behavioural insight will allow them to plan smarter, invest better, and deliver resilient networks that align with the UK’s net zero goals.”
“The use of advanced load and behavioural modelling,” continued Duran, “to simulate how consumer flexibility can alleviate peak demand – by integrating real-time data with predictive models – means owners and operators can identify where and when to invest in flexibility services or network reinforcement.”
In other words, the question is no longer whether electricity demand will rise, but whether low-voltage networks can keep pace without wasting money on the wrong upgrades. We often focus on the larger grid as a whole, but smarter grid-edge visibility may prove just as important as new infrastructure in determining how smoothly the transition to net zero unfolds.
