The UK Government will need to procure a historic level of renewable energy in upcoming Contract for Difference (CfD) auctions if it hopes to meet its 2030 clean power target, according to new analysis from Cornwall Insight.
In its latest data, the consultancy suggests that the 2025 and 2026 CfD auction rounds (AR7 and AR8) must at least double the capacity secured in this year’s auction across onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar. That is to ensure the delivery of up to 20 GW of offshore wind, 7–8 GW of onshore wind, and 23–24 GW of solar PV by 2030.
While AR6 secured record levels of capacity – 5GW of offshore wind, 900MW of onshore wind, and 3.3GW of solar PV – Cornwall Insight notes that these figures are insufficient for the next two rounds.
The Government has made incremental announcements regarding AR7, including potential changes to offshore wind eligibility criteria and contract lengths. Major CfD reforms, however, are not expected until AR9 in 2027. Although the Government has confirmed that AR7’s budget will be ‘sufficient,’ no precise figures have been confirmed.
In parallel, a wider range of challenges could slow progress towards the 2030 target. These include funding constraints, international competition for investment, lengthy grid connection queues, and supply chain bottlenecks, as well as protracted planning permission processes.
While the Government points to the National Electricity System Operator (NESO) report to show the target remains achievable, that same report cautions that “it will only be achieved with bold action and sustained momentum, across every area and every step of the way between now and 2030.”
Additionally, there have been other dissenting voices on whether the 2030 deadline remains feasible, including Andy Willis, CEO of Kona Energy, and data from LCP Delta that highlights the monumental challenge of the target.
Despite the obstacles, many in the renewables industry are excited by the opportunity for the sector to accelerate emissions reductions. Record-breaking capacity demands in AR7 and AR8 could spur further growth, provided the policy environment, budgets, and project pipelines align.
Tim Dixon, Senior Consultant at Cornwall Insight, commented, “The Government’s target is ambitious, and the scale of renewables procurement needed in the next two auctions would be nothing short of record-breaking. The 2030 clean power goal is increasingly looking out of reach unless there is a dramatic shift in the pace of renewables procurement across the sector.
“While NESO has stated that achieving the goal is technically feasible, this might not be the strong endorsement the government is presenting it as. NESO has highlighted the monumental scale of action needed—spanning increased budgets, expedited planning permissions, and reforming connection queues, among other challenges. The likelihood of aligning all these elements in time is extremely challenging.
“However, we shouldn’t let the difficulty of meeting these targets overshadow the positive progress being made in the UK renewables sector. With growing investment in Contract for Difference auctions and a stronger emphasis on expanding low-carbon technologies, we have a real opportunity to drive down emissions and move closer to our 2050 net-zero ambitions as a result.”